Escaping America's Future

The Administration should expand its policy for energy security into a broader framework and rebrand it National Energy Security Strategy (NESS), with the Department of Energy as the lead agency. It should encompass a 20-30 year roadmap for America's safe transformation to a more secure energy future under six central themes: Engage, Secure, Conserve, Adapt, Protect, and Evolve (E.S.C.A.P.E.).

There are other disconcerting warning signs that the U.S. should heed. Of the top ten U.S. oil exporters, for example, eight are classified as "in danger" of becoming failed states. These included: Iraq (critical), Nigeria, Colombia, Angola, Algeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico (borderline). Terrorism, both at home and abroad, is also a constant threat to the US oil trade and can have resounding effects on the economy if focused toward the oil industry. Past attacks on oil infrastructure have shown the tremendous effects that terrorism can achieve. Al Qaeda's 2005 attack on the Aramco facility in Saudi Arabia had an evidential impact on the international markets. Terrorist leaders, such as Osama bin Laden, have also called upon Muslim extremists to focus attacks on oil infrastructure that serves western interests. As recently as March 2010, Saudi Arabian security forces arrested 113 al Qaeda militants that were plotting to attack key oil facilities in Riyadh.

Piracy is a growing menace to the oil industry, having garnered over "tens of billions" of dollars in ransom money from hijackings along the Horn of Africa and in other places like the Gulf of Guinea. Oil tankers are hijacked regularly for millions USD (roughly around 3 million USD per vessel), with cargoes that value in the range of 80 - 160 million dollars. The Sirius Star supertanker, for instance, was hijacked in 2008 and was carrying over two million barrels of crude (about 10% of U.S. daily consumption).

The U.S. Homeland, as well, is not without its share of vulnerabilities. The Gulf of Mexico and bordering states have the bulk of the U.S.'s domestic oil production capabilities. There are oil platforms, refineries, and the bulk of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) all nested in this region and vulnerable to a full range of attacks and sabotage. The recent Deepwater Horizon oil spill incident in the Gulf, although classified an accident, demonstrates how damaging a potential attack on infrastructure could be to U.S. interests. Moreover, this unprecedented incident is demonstrating the need for the U.S. Government to include multi-national corporations in its strategic framework.

There are only about 149 oil refineries in the US. In order to feed the nation's demand for fuel, these refineries operate between 92 to 97 percent capacity year long, leaving little room for error. The protection of these critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) is hence another aspect of energy security that needs to be coordinated with the milestones set forth in the NESS.

The NESS should guide and inform DoD, DOE, DHS, and others in their responsibilities to secure the sources of energy that are necessary to safely make the transition to alternative fuels over the next 20 to 30 years. Since sources of US oil originate from various unstable places throughout the world, the NESS should transcend traditional boundaries established by departments to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the objectives, priorities, and milestones for achieving energy security through all elements of ESCAPE. Clearly, the security of the sea lines of communication, security and capacity building of our top oil exporters and the protection of oil infrastructure and vessels require a global approach.